Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned 'Sham' Election.

Polling materials in Burma
The country's military is conducting a phased vote over the next month.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker TΓΌrk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr TΓΌrk said in a statement, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

David Barnes
David Barnes

A former odds compiler turned betting analyst, Marcus specializes in statistical modeling and market trends for major sports leagues.